With a 96 College hoops handicap game last Saturday, I find myself as a professional handicapper sometimes overwhelmed by the myriad of equipment and stats and scenarios to watch on Friday night as I prepare to post tips for paying customers , who count on me. to earn them money every day of the week with my merchandise. This is a huge responsibility and I don’t take it lightly, so I thought I’d break down my performance to make a valid point in terms of how to reduce it to make it profitable for novice sports bettors and would-be handicappers who sometimes lose. forest site because of all the trees.
Specialization is the key to success. I took a look at my 3-1 ATS performance on Saturday and thought I’d point it out in terms of how you can achieve a 75% ATS win rate with that many games. I narrow it down to 3 conferences that I specialize in, and one situation that I specialize in, small conference totals now play 5-1 ATS on the year. Let’s look at my one loss which was Texas Tech vs Oklahoma getting +10.5 and they lost by 12. Close but no cigars on it, I needed a layup to cover but I found out that Texas Tech is one of the worst road teams in college hoops and in the Big 12, it’s official. Being in the radio business from both a game show perspective and a sports talk show perspective in Lincoln, NE, so I work with game announcers and even a national play-by-play announcer for ESPN Gameplan which covers the Big 12 and Mountain West on a weekly basis. This gives me some serious perspective and information that can’t be found on cable services, a huge plus for me!
Small to medium conferences, like Missouri Valley for example, are also one of the MAIN keys to my success. Look at this past Saturday, 3 undefeated, all favorites including Duke, everyone was favored on the road. These games get the lion’s share of public interest and public betting, and make no mistake, Las Vegas gamblers know it. I won with small conference plays, where the lines moved very little or not at all. Not something exciting, but profitable. St. Mary’s CA posted 1 point on the road in a 22-point win, San Diego State posted 7 and won by 27 and the Over in the NC Wilmington and George Mason game, winning the over by 13 points over extension. The line, lateral and total moves in those games combined were less than 3 points TOTAL! Not exciting stuff, not exciting games on TV, but with a 3-0 sweep in those games, exciting when you go to the box office! The lines are soft and not as sharp and are less likely to have big changes before kickoff than a game involving Duke, U Conn, North Carolina, and teams that attract high betting and public attention.
I like to fly under the radar screen and narrow it down to a finite number of handicap teams, say watching 25-30 games max, and I’ll let the public and other players worry about getting noticed in the main games. If you work some conferences, like Colonial or Horizon or Sun Belt as a weekly assignment, you’ll get very used to home/road dichotomies in those conferences, and win/loss scenarios and past history, who plays hardball, no matter the situation. . Knowing that St. Mary’s of California is always a tough team to beat at home, and remember in that conference, Gonzaga travels there. Just little things that are common knowledge to those who take the time to specialize in it! Look at San Diego State, with their best record in conference history, and playing against a team that has lost every road game by double digits and yet put up 7 and win by 27! The Aztecs lead the conference standings and have a standout striker who dominates this conference, keep an eye on them.
Narrow it down, keep it simple, and watch some conferences like the ones I mentioned, maybe the MAC conference, or a little in-between race and start doing your homework, it will pay dividends this Hoops season.
