Talk about a choke job. Tom Brady, Mr. Clutch, Mr. Postseason, Mr. Best-QB-Ever-When-The-Game-Is-On-The-Line fell short Sunday against the Jets in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. Brady lost his third straight playoff game, his second straight at home, and all three losses came against an underdog. If this was who, this game would be just another example of his inability to come through in the big moments. But since this is Tom Brady, what do we hear? Belichick was outclassed as a coach. Patriots wide receivers were covered. Anything to absolve Brady of blame for Sunday’s loss.
What I can tell you about yesterday’s game is that Tom Brady looked like Jim (or Chris) Everett reincarnated. Twice I saw Brady duck, feeling the pressure of the passer when no one was around him. On another occasion, he actually looked back as he dug into his pocket in the middle of the play to check if he was about to take a hit. Throughout the game, he overreacted to pressure, like a rookie playing for the first time.
What made Tom Brady and the Patriots so good all season? His short passing game. Wes Welker in the slot, Danny Woodhead out of the backfield, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski in midfield, Deion Branch on the outside. What did all these recipients have in common? They all caught the ball close to the line of scrimmage. Tom Brady was surgical all season, ripping through defenses with short passes on a regular basis. On Sunday, however, he didn’t take what he was given. He hung on to the ball, looking for the big play too many times. He played a different game than the one he played for most of 2010. Is it safe to say the moment got too big for him? No, not Tom Brady.
The Patriots’ long drive of more than 7 minutes in the 4th quarter, while trailing by 10 points, was a defining moment in this game. The long run not only ate up half of the room, it didn’t yield any points. Why? I’m glad you asked. On 2 and 10 from the Jets 31, the Patriots were in field goal range. Tom Brady dropped back to pass, moved in the pocket to avoid pressure, and Wes Welker stared him in the face about 10-15 yards down the middle of the field. However, Tom Brady did not throw it away. He easily could have and he should have. He had time. Instead, he was shy and took a sack.
On the next play, it was third-and-13 at the 34-yard line. The Patriots were now out of comfortable field-goal range. A 51-yarder at Foxborough is no easy feat. The Pats needed to make up the yards Brady had lost to get back into field goal range. They lined up in a group formation on the right. Two receivers ran vertical routes, almost like picks for Wes Welker, the third receiver in the group. Welker ran to the floor, wide open. This is where Brady was looking. This is where the play was designed to go. But Brady didn’t throw it away. He held on to the ball, looking for a bigger play. He danced in the pocket for what seemed like 30 minutes before firing another incomplete pass. The Jets were giving the Pats half of the 13 yards needed for the first down on this play, but Brady didn’t take it, leaving his team in poor shape.
At this point, it was 4-and-13 down at the 34-yard line. The Pats could go for the 51-yard field goal or try to convert a 4-and-13. Not an ideal situation with their season on the line. They decided to go for it. Deion Branch ran an isolation route against Antonio Cromartie, and won. Brady saw Branch and pulled the trigger. The season was at stake. This was the kind of moment that Tom “Clutch” has always had… Only not this time. Brady threw a missed pass, a terrible pass, to a wide-open receiver. He was incomplete. A turnover in declines. 5 minutes later, the game was over, as was New England’s season.
Yes, the Jets had a good game plan on defense. They used a passive approach with lots of man/zone hybrid coverage. But Brady still had wide receivers all game. So what happened then? Is it fair to say that Brady failed in the clutch? You might think I’m exaggerating a bit, trying to tell all those New England fans who thought a fourth Lombardi Trophy was a foregone conclusion. But let us think seriously about this argument. Is Tom Brady really the key quarterback he’s supposed to be, or has he just always been given a free pass for poor performances in the crunch time because of his 3 Super Bowl rings? Rings he won earlier in his career when he played for the best team in the league annually. Let’s look at some numbers.
Brady’s regular season career numbers: 63.6 completion percentage, 7.4 yards per pass attempt, 95.2 QB rating. Brady’s career playoff numbers: 62.2 completion percentage, 6.5 yards per pass, 85.7 QB rating. (Just to let you know, Peyton Manning in his playoff career has a 63.1 completion percentage, 7.51 yards per attempt and an 88.4 rating.)
In Brady’s last 9 postseason games, the Patriots are 4-5. He has thrown 16 TDs, 13 INTs and has a QB rating of 80.6. By contrast, Matt Hasselbeck during that same time span has led the Seahawks to a 5-4 playoff record, with 16 TDs, 7 INTs and an 85.6 rating. I guess Brady stopped clutching since 2004. Or at least he did it less than Hasselbeck.
In Tom Brady’s regular season run with the game on the line (fourth quarter and the score within 7 points), he has a QB rating of 82.6, well below his overall regular season rating of 95.2 (Note to margin: Peyton Manning has a 91.3 rating for his career in the fourth quarter with the game within 7 points. He also has thirty-six wins from behind in the fourth quarter compared to Brady who has 20).
If you want to say that Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback of all time, or the greatest quarterback of all time, or even better than Peyton Manning, the win-loss argument is the way to go. But that to me is just fun. Quarterback might be the single most impactful position in football. But he is no more impressive than a full offensive or defensive unit. Games don’t just come down to who has the better quarterback. Is there a correlation? Sometimes. But there is no direct line of causality here. The TEAM that plays the best wins 99% of the time.
If it were really true that wins and losses determine which quarterbacks are better than others, then you would have to say that Tom Brady from 2001 to 2004 was a better quarterback than Tom Brady from 2005 to 2010. Think about it, he won 3 Super Bowls in 4 years from 2001 to 2004 instead of none in his last 6 seasons. But clearly, that is stupid to believe. Brady is undoubtedly a better QB now than he was at the start of his career.
So what does all this say, other than the media is full of it and creates false narratives to come up with a better story? He says that soccer is the best team game. He says that the notion of “clutch” is greatly exaggerated. And he says that despite all the arguments I just made against him, Tom Brady is still one of the top 5 quarterbacks of all time. He might even be the second best of all time. But who is number one? Rex Ryan knows the answer.
